Well, it looks like Mother Nature is serving up a classic late-November reality check. After a wonderfully mild Wednesday with temps flirting with the 60s, a cold front is sweeping through, setting the stage for a chilly and blustery holiday weekend here in New Jersey. So, as you get ready for Thanksgiving, make sure you're also prepared for a dramatic temperature tumble and some seriously gusty winds.
Key Highlights
- ✓ A cold and blustery Thanksgiving is on tap, with wind chills stuck in the 30s.
- ✓ Black Friday will be even windier, with gusts potentially reaching 40 to 50 mph.
- ✓ Forecasters are closely tracking a potential winter storm for Tuesday of next week.
- ✓ The storm could bring New Jersey its first widespread wintry precipitation of the season.
- ✓ There is still "significant uncertainty" about the storm's track, which will determine if we see snow, rain, or a mix.
But the real conversation starter is what's lurking around the corner for next week. Forecasters have their eyes on a system that could bring our very first widespread bout of winter weather. It's still a ways out, but it’s definitely time to start paying attention.
The Big Holiday Chill: From Mild to Blustery
It’s almost hard to believe how quickly things are changing. Wednesday was an unusually mild November day, a real gift for one of the busiest travel days of the year. But as a cold front moves in, that warmth is being ushered out, replaced by a much colder and windier pattern that will define our Thanksgiving Day.
Get ready for a day that feels genuinely cold. High temperatures are only expected to reach the low to mid-40s, which is already chilly enough. But the real story will be the wind. A brisk westerly wind, with sustained speeds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts kicking up to 30 or even 35 mph, will make it feel much colder. Those biting wind chills will likely be stuck in the 30s all day long.
This wind is even causing some concern for the iconic Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. There are strict rules about the famous balloons—if sustained winds top 23 mph or gusts hit 34 mph, they aren't allowed to fly. The current forecast keeps the winds just below those thresholds, but you can bet that parade organizers will be watching the conditions very, very closely on Thursday morning.
Black Friday's Even Bigger Bite
If you thought Thanksgiving was going to be windy, just wait for Friday. The winds are expected to get even stronger, making for a truly blustery day for anyone heading out for Black Friday shopping. Forecasters are calling for gusts to ramp up, potentially reaching 40 to 45 mph and even approaching 50 mph in some spots. This is the kind of wind that could cause some minor tree damage or scattered power outages, so definitely be aware.
Temperatures won't offer any relief either. Friday morning will start with a freeze for most of the state, with lows dipping into the 20s. Highs will once again struggle to get out of the upper 30s and low 40s. With those powerful winds, the wind chills will make it feel like it’s in the teens to low 20s. So, if you're venturing out, layers are an absolute must. There’s even a slight chance for a few flurries to fly around, adding to the wintry feel.
A Quieter, But Still Cold, Weekend
After two days of relentless wind, we’ll finally get a break on Saturday. High pressure will start to build into the region, causing the winds to diminish significantly. This will make it feel much more comfortable outside, even though the actual temperatures will be quite similar to Friday. Expect mainly sunny skies and highs holding steady in the low 40s, which is still about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
The calmer conditions and sunshine will make Saturday a pretty decent day for any outdoor plans or for supporting local businesses on Small Business Saturday. The overnight lows for both Friday and Saturday nights will be quite cold, however, ranging from the upper 20s to the lower 30s across the state.
Sunday's Unsettled Return
Just as we get used to the quiet weather, things will turn unsettled again by Sunday. As many people are traveling back home after the holiday, another weather system will be moving in. This will bring a round of rain during the day. The good news is that rainfall totals look pretty light, generally around a quarter-inch.
Ahead of this system, temperatures will rebound slightly, with highs reaching the low to mid-50s near the coast and the low to mid-40s for inland areas. While it looks like mostly liquid rain for the majority of New Jersey, there's a chance some wintry mix could come into play in the colder, northwestern corner of the state, depending on the exact timing and temperatures. Then, on Monday, high pressure briefly returns, bringing a dry but chilly day with highs back in the low to mid-40s.
The Main Event: Eyes on a Potential Tuesday Storm
Here's where the forecast gets really interesting and a bit tricky. Meteorologists are closely monitoring a storm system modeled to arrive around the Tuesday timeframe. This one has the potential to be our first widespread wintry precipitation event of the season, and there’s a strong signal leaning toward some form of wintry weather for at least part of the state.
The key word right now, as the National Weather Service emphasizes, is uncertainty. They’ve stated, "There remains significant uncertainty with regard to the strength, track, and timing of this system." The exact track of this storm will be absolutely critical in determining what kind of precipitation we see and where. A slight shift in the track can mean the difference between all rain, a messy mix, or significant snow.
Current forecasts suggest a few possibilities. One likely scenario is a classic "snow north / rain south" setup. For areas from the I-95 corridor and southeast to the coast, rain is more probable. But for areas near the I-78 corridor and especially north of it, the potential for impactful snowfall is higher. Chief Meteorologist Dan Zarrow has even said that "accumulating snow is a plausible scenario" and that "significant snowfall is possible for North Jersey."
It is still very early, and a lot can and will change in the coming days. The forecast confidence for Tuesday's system remains relatively low because of these uncertainties. Forecasters will be watching the models closely over the holiday weekend, and we should start to get a clearer picture by Saturday, about 72 hours out from the event. For now, it’s a "sit and watch" situation, but it's important to be aware of the possibility as we head into next week.
Conclusion
The bottom line is this: prepare for a genuinely cold and windy end to the holiday week. Thanksgiving and especially Black Friday will require you to bundle up against some harsh wind chills. The weekend offers a brief break from the wind but not the cold, before rain returns on Sunday.
Looking ahead, the big story is the potential for our first significant winter storm of the season on Tuesday. While nothing is set in stone, the possibility of accumulating snow, particularly for the northern half of the state, is very real. Stay tuned to forecasts over the weekend as meteorologists work to pin down the details of this developing system.
